SSHFT Observatory

Scientific contract / version 1.0

Methodology

SHFT explores scientifically constrained future Earth trajectories. It does not forecast one future, optimize toward an outcome, or let interpretation alter computation.

Active engine

shft-earth-core-0.2.0

Earth-state schema

earth-state-0.2

Status

validated default

Active production backbone

SURFER v3.0

Adapter

SHFT adapter

Tolerance set

engine-0.2

How SHFT works

  1. 01Scenario
  2. 02Scientific engine
  3. 03Earth state
  4. 04Validation
  5. 05Provenance
  6. 06Observatory

A user-defined scenario is executed outside the interface by the pinned scientific model. SHFT maps its supported outputs into a versioned Earth-state schema, applies binary gates, records the complete lineage, and displays only what survives those checks.

Scientific philosophy

  • Physical Earth systems are modeled before biological and human systems.
  • The engine has no preferred outcome.
  • Unknown is an explicit scientific state.
  • Uncertainty language never exceeds evidence.
  • Interpretation never changes computation.
  • Validation may withhold unsupported results.

Scientific backbone registry

SURFER v3.0 — active production backbone

SURFER is executed from its pinned archive without rewriting its equations. SHFT adds scenario inputs, explicit state mapping, unit and timestep transformations, validation, provenance, and the Observatory.

Other published Earth-system models may be registered alongside it as reference backbones, used only to validate, constrain, or bound production output. A reference model never supplies a value SHFT reports, never fills a quantity marked not modeled, and disagreement between models is kept as scientific information rather than averaged away.

Source

Where a value or method originated.

Epistemic label

What kind of evidence supports this value.

Validation

Whether predefined tests passed or failed.

Constitutional Gate catalog — v1.0 disposition

6 of 13 catalogued gates are evaluated for tolerance set engine-0.2. A passed-gate count on any run refers only to those 6 active criteria. The remaining 7 are not evaluated: they are neither passed nor failed, and each records why, and what evidence would be required to promote it to an independent SHFT check in a later version. Silence is not a pass.

Carbon mass conservation

carbon_conservation

UPSTREAM · NOT RE-VERIFIED

Upstream property — not independently re-verified by SHFT v1.0

Evidence basis · Carbon conservation is a property of the pinned upstream SURFER v3.0 formulation and is evidenced only by the reproduced upstream carbon-budget benchmark (carbon_budget_2000_2009_and_cumulative). The earth-state-0.2 schema stores no carbon reservoir masses. Of the two catalogued flux-like quantities, net_primary_productivity is defined but not represented; weathering_rate is represented. SHFT therefore holds no complete reservoir/flux inventory and cannot construct an independent closure test. Completeness is not inferred.

Required to promote · Store the complete upstream carbon reservoir and flux diagnostics per stored time point in a new schema version, then add an engine-0.2+ criterion computing a residual against a sourced tolerance.

Independent SHFT verification · inherited upstream

CO2 and GMST numeric guard range

emulator_domain

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Energy balance closure

energy_balance

UPSTREAM · NOT RE-VERIFIED

Upstream property — not independently re-verified by SHFT v1.0

Evidence basis · Energy closure is a property of the pinned upstream formulation. The adapter/payload stores only global mean surface temperature and ocean heat content; no top-of-atmosphere or component energy fluxes are stored, so no auditable closure residual can be computed by SHFT v1.0.

Required to promote · Store the complete upstream energy-flux inventory (top-of-atmosphere imbalance and component fluxes) per stored time point, then add a criterion checking the imbalance against a sourced tolerance.

Independent SHFT verification · inherited upstream

Hindcast: last deglaciation

hindcast_ice

DEFERRED · NOT VALIDATED

Deferred — not independently validated in v1.0

Evidence basis · Deferred in v1.0. No reconstruction-based ice benchmark has been sourced or reproduced for the pinned backbone, and no engine-0.2 criterion evaluates ice volume against any target. No pass is inherited from tol-0.1.

Required to promote · A cited deglaciation ice-volume reconstruction with a declared tolerance, an executed adapter-path run over that interval, and an engine-0.2+ criterion comparing served ice_sheet_volume output against it.

Independent SHFT verification · not performed

Hindcast: sea level

hindcast_sea_level

DEFERRED · NOT VALIDATED

Deferred — not independently validated in v1.0

Evidence basis · Deferred in v1.0. The upstream publication compares thermosteric sea level with IPCC evidence, but no sourced, reproducible adapter-path comparison exists in SHFT and no engine-0.2 criterion evaluates it. The seeded tol-0.1 demonstration result is hand-authored and is not evidence about the SURFER-backed engine.

Required to promote · A sourced tide-gauge or reconstruction target with a declared tolerance, an executed historical adapter-path run, and an engine-0.2+ criterion comparing served sea_level output against it.

Independent SHFT verification · not performed

Hindcast: surface temperature

hindcast_temperature

UPSTREAM · NOT RE-VERIFIED

Upstream property — not independently re-verified by SHFT v1.0

Evidence basis · Upstream reproduction evidence only. The reproduced pinned-model benchmarks atmospheric_co2_curve_1850_2015_rmse_ppm and gmst_anomaly_2014_k compare upstream output with published historical evaluation, and are recorded under upstream_reproduction. No engine-0.2 criterion compares served SHFT adapter-path output against a sourced historical temperature target, so there is no independent SHFT hindcast gate.

Required to promote · A stored historical-period adapter-path run with a sourced observational temperature target and declared tolerance, plus an engine-0.2+ criterion comparing served SHFT output against it.

Independent SHFT verification · inherited upstream

Provenance completeness

provenance_completeness

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Schema compatibility

schema_compatibility

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Seed reproducibility

seed_reproducibility

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Long-run numerical stability

stability_longrun

DEFERRED · NOT VALIDATED

Deferred — not independently validated in v1.0

Evidence basis · Deferred in v1.0. No long-run SURFER-backed stability experiment has been executed and stored: the longest reproduced evidence is the LTMIP long-tail CO2 comparison, and the interface offers horizons far short of the 1 Myr integration the catalogued gate describes. The seeded tol-0.1 demonstration does not count.

Required to promote · A defined and executed long-run adapter-path experiment at the declared resolution with stored trajectories, plus an engine-0.2+ criterion checking for numerical blow-up over that integration.

Independent SHFT verification · not performed

Declared schema-range check

unit_validation

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Upstream reproduction

upstream_reproduction

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Water mass conservation

water_conservation

NOT APPLICABLE

Not applicable to the active production backbone

Evidence basis · SURFER v3.0, the sole active production backbone, models no hydrological cycle and SHFT Layer 1 stores no water inventory. The catalogued river_discharge quantity is defined but not represented. There is no quantity against which water mass closure could be tested, so the gate is outside the scope of the active backbone and must never be displayed as passed.

Required to promote · A production backbone that resolves a water inventory (reservoir masses and fluxes) plus a sourced closure tolerance. Not achievable by adapter work on SURFER v3.0.

Independent SHFT verification · not applicable

Scientific Backbone Registry

Exactly one production backbone computes Earth state. Every other registered model exists only to validate, constrain, or bound that output — it never supplies a reported value and never fills a quantity marked not modeled. The five maturity dimensions below are independent: an inability to execute a model in our environment is never a judgement about the quality of its science, and executing successfully never promotes a model toward production.

SURFER v3.0

v3.0 · MIT · role production

Production backbone

Scientific

established

Peer-reviewed model description: Couplet, Martinez Montero and Crucifix (2025), Geoscientific Model Development 18, 3081-3105, doi:10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025.

Reproducibility

reproduced in environment

Nine upstream benchmarks reproduced from the pinned archive SURFER_v3.zip (MD5 82c0537c42b66451a7550bb6fa7ef88e); engine/upstream/reproduction_report.json.

Integration

mapped with executed comparison

Declarative adapter engine/shft_engine/surfer/adapter.py maps seven quantities and declares six not_modelled; CM-01 executed against GEOCLIM 7.0.

Validation

cross validated

Internal benchmark reproduction plus one executed external cross-model comparison (CM-01, weathering magnitude only). Cross-validation is quantity-specific and does not extend to any other quantity.

Production

active production

Promoted to validated_default as shft-earth-core-0.2.0 after historical, centennial and long-tail gate families passed.

GEOCLIM 7.0

7.0 · CC-BY-4.0 · role validation reference

Validation backbone

Scientific

established

Peer-reviewed model description: Maffre et al. (2025), Geoscientific Model Development 18, 6367, doi:10.5194/gmd-18-6367-2025.

Reproducibility

reproduced in environment

Built unmodified from pinned archive piermafrost-GEOCLIM-v7.0.zip (MD5 02579825643a90017d19dea9930fd109); upstream make_test ascii reports Template comparison check PASSED. Environment shim (nc-config) lives outside the archive and is removable.

Integration

mapped with executed comparison

Weathering capability cells mapped; CM-01 declared with tolerance before execution and executed.

Validation

internally validated

Reproduces its own upstream template comparison. Its role in SHFT is to test SURFER claims, not to be validated by SHFT.

Production

none

Never executes inside the production Earth Engine and never fills a production not_modelled value.

cGENIE (cgenie.muffin)

v0.9.60 · MIT · role validation reference

Validation backbone

Scientific

established

Widely used peer-reviewed Earth system model of intermediate complexity; base description Ridgwell et al. (2007), Biogeosciences 4, 87-104, doi:10.5194/bg-4-87-2007.

Reproducibility

reproduced in environment

Published known-good BIOGEM test from the pinned v0.9.60 release passed unmodified in this environment.

Integration

dossier only

Dossier and reproduction recorded. No Earth-state variable mapping and no executed comparison yet: a published equilibrium configuration with practical spin-up runtime has not been established here.

Validation

internally validated

Reproduces its own published known-good test. No SHFT cross-model comparison executed against it.

Production

none

Never executes inside the production Earth Engine.

SCION

v1.1.6 · Apache-2.0 (LICENSE file inside the pinned archive; the Zenodo record metadata label other-open is less specific) · role validation reference

Research backbone

Scientific

established

Peer-reviewed SCION model description, doi:10.1029/2020GC009361, and associated deep-time publications.

Reproducibility

not reproducible here

Octave ode15s corrector convergence failure; requires MATLAB or an equivalent solver environment.

Integration

dossier only

Dossier from published evidence only. No executed comparison.

Validation

declared only

Published validation exists in the literature; nothing has been reproduced or cross-validated inside SHFT.

Production

none

Never executes inside the production Earth Engine.

EONS

v1.0.0 · CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo record metadata for the pinned release; the earlier triage entry recording MIT was incorrect) · role boundary reference

Research backbone

Scientific

established

Peer-reviewed: Horne et al. (2024), doi:10.1029/2023GC011252.

Reproducibility

not reproducible here

MATLAB script-local-function resolution and ode15s dependence; requires MATLAB.

Integration

dossier only

Dossier from published evidence only. No executed comparison.

Validation

declared only

Published validation only; nothing reproduced inside SHFT.

Production

none

Never executes inside the production Earth Engine.

COPSE

Zenodo record 17416376 (COPSE / PALEO MATLAB distribution) · CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo record metadata for the pinned archive). Repository-level licensing remains UNRESOLVED: bjwmills/COPSE states Apache-2.0, sjdaines/COPSE states nothing. · role calibration reference

Research backbone

Scientific

established

Peer-reviewed lineage: Bergman et al. (2004) and Lenton et al. (2018) COPSE reloaded, American Journal of Science.

Reproducibility

not reproducible here

MATLAB import statement and Java-backed YAML library unsupported by Octave; requires MATLAB.

Integration

dossier only

Dossier from published evidence only. No executed comparison. COPSE ships its own tolerance-based reproduction harness, so it becomes a strong reproduction candidate once a MATLAB environment exists.

Validation

declared only

Published validation and an upstream test harness exist; neither has been executed inside SHFT.

Production

none

Never executes inside the production Earth Engine.

Currently modeled

  • Atmospheric CO₂
  • Global mean surface temperature anomaly
  • Whole-ocean heat content anomaly
  • Upper-ocean global mean pH
  • Land ice volume
  • Global mean sea level anomaly relative to run start
  • Global carbonate + silicate weathering flux

Intentionally not modeled

  • Regional or spatial prediction
  • Ocean circulation and hydrology
  • Vegetation and ecosystems
  • Tectonic geography
  • Human population and urban land
  • Organized systems

Current limitations

Unsupported quantities remain unknown, not estimated. SHFT does not fill gaps with plausible-looking values or downgrade missing data into a weaker confidence label.

The current engine resolves global-scale Earth-system behaviour. It does not resolve regional, ecological, or human-system outcomes. Results marked not_modelled are outside the validated scope of the active production backbone.

Primary references

Scientific foundations

  • SHFT Observatory Constitution v1.0

    The permanent scientific-integrity rules governing computation and display.

  • SURFER v3.0: a reduced model of the global carbon cycle and climate

    Victor Couplet, Marina Martinez Montero, Michel Crucifix

    Paper DOI 10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025
  • Pinned SURFER v3.0 code archive

    Archive DOI 10.5281/zenodo.14717610
  • Promotion evidence

    9 passed comparisons across historical, centennial, long tail. CMIP6, Global Carbon Budget, and LTMIP/Archer data are evaluation evidence, not components of SHFT.