SSHFT Observatory
Observatory

Research layer / sample ensemble

Can I trust this result?

Inspect versioned runs, explicit uncertainty, complete provenance, and the Constitutional Gates that can withhold unsupported science.

Open Discovery Log

Scientific Backbone Registry

Exactly one production backbone computes Earth state. Every other registered model exists only to validate, constrain, or bound that output — it never supplies a reported value and never fills a quantity marked not modeled. The five maturity dimensions below are independent: an inability to execute a model in our environment is never a judgement about the quality of its science, and executing successfully never promotes a model toward production.

SURFER v3.0

v3.0 · MIT · role production

Production backbone

Scientific

established

Peer-reviewed model description: Couplet, Martinez Montero and Crucifix (2025), Geoscientific Model Development 18, 3081-3105, doi:10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025.

Reproducibility

reproduced in environment

Nine upstream benchmarks reproduced from the pinned archive SURFER_v3.zip (MD5 82c0537c42b66451a7550bb6fa7ef88e); engine/upstream/reproduction_report.json.

Integration

mapped with executed comparison

Declarative adapter engine/shft_engine/surfer/adapter.py maps seven quantities and declares six not_modelled; CM-01 executed against GEOCLIM 7.0.

Validation

cross validated

Internal benchmark reproduction plus one executed external cross-model comparison (CM-01, weathering magnitude only). Cross-validation is quantity-specific and does not extend to any other quantity.

Production

active production

Promoted to validated_default as shft-earth-core-0.2.0 after historical, centennial and long-tail gate families passed.

GEOCLIM 7.0

7.0 · CC-BY-4.0 · role validation reference

Validation backbone

Scientific

established

Peer-reviewed model description: Maffre et al. (2025), Geoscientific Model Development 18, 6367, doi:10.5194/gmd-18-6367-2025.

Reproducibility

reproduced in environment

Built unmodified from pinned archive piermafrost-GEOCLIM-v7.0.zip (MD5 02579825643a90017d19dea9930fd109); upstream make_test ascii reports Template comparison check PASSED. Environment shim (nc-config) lives outside the archive and is removable.

Integration

mapped with executed comparison

Weathering capability cells mapped; CM-01 declared with tolerance before execution and executed.

Validation

internally validated

Reproduces its own upstream template comparison. Its role in SHFT is to test SURFER claims, not to be validated by SHFT.

Production

none

Never executes inside the production Earth Engine and never fills a production not_modelled value.

cGENIE (cgenie.muffin)

v0.9.60 · MIT · role validation reference

Validation backbone

Scientific

established

Widely used peer-reviewed Earth system model of intermediate complexity; base description Ridgwell et al. (2007), Biogeosciences 4, 87-104, doi:10.5194/bg-4-87-2007.

Reproducibility

reproduced in environment

Published known-good BIOGEM test from the pinned v0.9.60 release passed unmodified in this environment.

Integration

dossier only

Dossier and reproduction recorded. No Earth-state variable mapping and no executed comparison yet: a published equilibrium configuration with practical spin-up runtime has not been established here.

Validation

internally validated

Reproduces its own published known-good test. No SHFT cross-model comparison executed against it.

Production

none

Never executes inside the production Earth Engine.

SCION

v1.1.6 · Apache-2.0 (LICENSE file inside the pinned archive; the Zenodo record metadata label other-open is less specific) · role validation reference

Research backbone

Scientific

established

Peer-reviewed SCION model description, doi:10.1029/2020GC009361, and associated deep-time publications.

Reproducibility

not reproducible here

Octave ode15s corrector convergence failure; requires MATLAB or an equivalent solver environment.

Integration

dossier only

Dossier from published evidence only. No executed comparison.

Validation

declared only

Published validation exists in the literature; nothing has been reproduced or cross-validated inside SHFT.

Production

none

Never executes inside the production Earth Engine.

EONS

v1.0.0 · CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo record metadata for the pinned release; the earlier triage entry recording MIT was incorrect) · role boundary reference

Research backbone

Scientific

established

Peer-reviewed: Horne et al. (2024), doi:10.1029/2023GC011252.

Reproducibility

not reproducible here

MATLAB script-local-function resolution and ode15s dependence; requires MATLAB.

Integration

dossier only

Dossier from published evidence only. No executed comparison.

Validation

declared only

Published validation only; nothing reproduced inside SHFT.

Production

none

Never executes inside the production Earth Engine.

COPSE

Zenodo record 17416376 (COPSE / PALEO MATLAB distribution) · CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo record metadata for the pinned archive). Repository-level licensing remains UNRESOLVED: bjwmills/COPSE states Apache-2.0, sjdaines/COPSE states nothing. · role calibration reference

Research backbone

Scientific

established

Peer-reviewed lineage: Bergman et al. (2004) and Lenton et al. (2018) COPSE reloaded, American Journal of Science.

Reproducibility

not reproducible here

MATLAB import statement and Java-backed YAML library unsupported by Octave; requires MATLAB.

Integration

dossier only

Dossier from published evidence only. No executed comparison. COPSE ships its own tolerance-based reproduction harness, so it becomes a strong reproduction candidate once a MATLAB environment exists.

Validation

declared only

Published validation and an upstream test harness exist; neither has been executed inside SHFT.

Production

none

Never executes inside the production Earth Engine.

Validity register — per quantity

A numerical validity boundary is recorded only where published evidence or demonstrated validation supports it. Where none exists, the limitation is stated instead. No boundary is ever inferred, and no boundary does not mean unlimited.

co2_concentration

boundary not established

reproduced in shft · Evidence is strongest through 10,000 years for published pulse experiments; no numerical validity cutoff is established.

global_mean_surface_temp

boundary not established

reproduced in shft · Reproduced support is historical-to-2099; longer horizons remain evidence-limited. SURFER lacks land temperatures and equates global mean temperature with ocean mean surface temperature, which can overestimate ocean surface warming and thermosteric sea-level rise.

ice_sheet_volume

boundary not established

structural limitation · Long integrations exist upstream but are unvalidated against reconstructions; validity boundary not numerically established.

ocean_heat_content

boundary not established

structural limitation · SHFT-composed quantity with a documented upstream warm bias in the upper ocean; validity boundary not numerically established.

ocean_ph

boundary not established

published not reproduced · Published comparison only; no numerical schema range or defended validity horizon is established.

sea_level

boundary not established

published not reproduced · Published comparisons exist to about 2300 and multi-millennial experiments; validity boundary not numerically established.

weathering_rate

boundary not established

structural limitation · One executed cross-model agreement on present-day magnitude; agreement alone establishes no validity domain.

Constitutional Gate catalog — v1.0 disposition

6 of 13 catalogued gates are evaluated for tolerance set engine-0.2. A passed-gate count on any run refers only to those 6 active criteria. The remaining 7 are not evaluated: they are neither passed nor failed, and each records why, and what evidence would be required to promote it to an independent SHFT check in a later version. Silence is not a pass.

Carbon mass conservation

carbon_conservation

UPSTREAM · NOT RE-VERIFIED

Upstream property — not independently re-verified by SHFT v1.0

Evidence basis · Carbon conservation is a property of the pinned upstream SURFER v3.0 formulation and is evidenced only by the reproduced upstream carbon-budget benchmark (carbon_budget_2000_2009_and_cumulative). The earth-state-0.2 schema stores no carbon reservoir masses. Of the two catalogued flux-like quantities, net_primary_productivity is defined but not represented; weathering_rate is represented. SHFT therefore holds no complete reservoir/flux inventory and cannot construct an independent closure test. Completeness is not inferred.

Required to promote · Store the complete upstream carbon reservoir and flux diagnostics per stored time point in a new schema version, then add an engine-0.2+ criterion computing a residual against a sourced tolerance.

Independent SHFT verification · inherited upstream

CO2 and GMST numeric guard range

emulator_domain

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Energy balance closure

energy_balance

UPSTREAM · NOT RE-VERIFIED

Upstream property — not independently re-verified by SHFT v1.0

Evidence basis · Energy closure is a property of the pinned upstream formulation. The adapter/payload stores only global mean surface temperature and ocean heat content; no top-of-atmosphere or component energy fluxes are stored, so no auditable closure residual can be computed by SHFT v1.0.

Required to promote · Store the complete upstream energy-flux inventory (top-of-atmosphere imbalance and component fluxes) per stored time point, then add a criterion checking the imbalance against a sourced tolerance.

Independent SHFT verification · inherited upstream

Hindcast: last deglaciation

hindcast_ice

DEFERRED · NOT VALIDATED

Deferred — not independently validated in v1.0

Evidence basis · Deferred in v1.0. No reconstruction-based ice benchmark has been sourced or reproduced for the pinned backbone, and no engine-0.2 criterion evaluates ice volume against any target. No pass is inherited from tol-0.1.

Required to promote · A cited deglaciation ice-volume reconstruction with a declared tolerance, an executed adapter-path run over that interval, and an engine-0.2+ criterion comparing served ice_sheet_volume output against it.

Independent SHFT verification · not performed

Hindcast: sea level

hindcast_sea_level

DEFERRED · NOT VALIDATED

Deferred — not independently validated in v1.0

Evidence basis · Deferred in v1.0. The upstream publication compares thermosteric sea level with IPCC evidence, but no sourced, reproducible adapter-path comparison exists in SHFT and no engine-0.2 criterion evaluates it. The seeded tol-0.1 demonstration result is hand-authored and is not evidence about the SURFER-backed engine.

Required to promote · A sourced tide-gauge or reconstruction target with a declared tolerance, an executed historical adapter-path run, and an engine-0.2+ criterion comparing served sea_level output against it.

Independent SHFT verification · not performed

Hindcast: surface temperature

hindcast_temperature

UPSTREAM · NOT RE-VERIFIED

Upstream property — not independently re-verified by SHFT v1.0

Evidence basis · Upstream reproduction evidence only. The reproduced pinned-model benchmarks atmospheric_co2_curve_1850_2015_rmse_ppm and gmst_anomaly_2014_k compare upstream output with published historical evaluation, and are recorded under upstream_reproduction. No engine-0.2 criterion compares served SHFT adapter-path output against a sourced historical temperature target, so there is no independent SHFT hindcast gate.

Required to promote · A stored historical-period adapter-path run with a sourced observational temperature target and declared tolerance, plus an engine-0.2+ criterion comparing served SHFT output against it.

Independent SHFT verification · inherited upstream

Provenance completeness

provenance_completeness

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Schema compatibility

schema_compatibility

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Seed reproducibility

seed_reproducibility

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Long-run numerical stability

stability_longrun

DEFERRED · NOT VALIDATED

Deferred — not independently validated in v1.0

Evidence basis · Deferred in v1.0. No long-run SURFER-backed stability experiment has been executed and stored: the longest reproduced evidence is the LTMIP long-tail CO2 comparison, and the interface offers horizons far short of the 1 Myr integration the catalogued gate describes. The seeded tol-0.1 demonstration does not count.

Required to promote · A defined and executed long-run adapter-path experiment at the declared resolution with stored trajectories, plus an engine-0.2+ criterion checking for numerical blow-up over that integration.

Independent SHFT verification · not performed

Declared schema-range check

unit_validation

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Upstream reproduction

upstream_reproduction

ACTIVE

Active — evaluated for engine-0.2

Evidence basis · Evaluated for every engine-0.2 run by evaluate_engine_gates within its stated scope.

Required to promote · None; already active. Any widening of scope requires a new criterion and tolerance set.

Independent SHFT verification · performed

Water mass conservation

water_conservation

NOT APPLICABLE

Not applicable to the active production backbone

Evidence basis · SURFER v3.0, the sole active production backbone, models no hydrological cycle and SHFT Layer 1 stores no water inventory. The catalogued river_discharge quantity is defined but not represented. There is no quantity against which water mass closure could be tested, so the gate is outside the scope of the active backbone and must never be displayed as passed.

Required to promote · A production backbone that resolves a water inventory (reservoir masses and fluxes) plus a sourced closure tolerance. Not achievable by adapter work on SURFER v3.0.

Independent SHFT verification · not applicable

Simulation Archive

365 recorded runs · individual records and scientific audits

Explore Runs

Sampled parameter ensembles

Each ensemble explores parameter uncertainty conditional on one forcing pathway, starting state, horizon, and engine version. Ranges are properties of the sampled ensemble — not probabilities about the real Earth.

present_day · stabilisation · 1000 yr · 32 members

32 members · scrambled_sobol · sampling-0.1.0 · uncertainty-registry-0.1.0 · shft-earth-core-0.2.0

exploratory

present_day · stabilisation · 300 yr · 32 members

32 members · scrambled_sobol · sampling-0.1.0 · uncertainty-registry-0.1.0 · shft-earth-core-0.2.0

exploratory

present_day · stabilisation · 300 yr · 32 members

32 members · scrambled_sobol · sampling-0.1.0 · uncertainty-registry-0.1.0 · shft-earth-core-0.2.0

exploratory

present_day · stabilisation · 300 yr · 32 members

32 members · scrambled_sobol · sampling-0.1.0 · uncertainty-registry-0.1.0 · shft-earth-core-0.2.0

exploratory

Fewer than 8 members validated. Fewer than 60% of requested members validated (0 of 32).

preindustrial · stabilisation · 1000 yr · 32 members

32 members · scrambled_sobol · sampling-0.1.0 · uncertainty-registry-0.1.0 · shft-earth-core-0.2.0

exploratory

present_day · stabilisation · 300 yr · 32 members

32 members · scrambled_sobol · sampling-0.1.0 · uncertainty-registry-0.1.0 · shft-earth-core-0.2.0

exploratory

present_day · stabilisation · 300 yr · 32 members

32 members · scrambled_sobol · sampling-0.1.0 · uncertainty-registry-0.1.0 · shft-earth-core-0.2.0

exploratory

present_day · stabilisation · 300 yr · 64 members

64 members · scrambled_sobol · sampling-0.1.0 · uncertainty-registry-0.1.0 · shft-earth-core-0.2.0

exploratory

present_day · stabilisation · 300 yr · 8 members

8 members · scrambled_sobol · sampling-0.1.0 · uncertainty-registry-0.1.0 · shft-earth-core-0.2.0

exploratory